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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 15 at the 51

Arizona Cardinals 7 – Carolina Panthers 7

What Actually Happened

(10:46) 4-A.Lee punts 40 yards to CAR 11, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 14-R.McCloud.

The Three Options

GO -1.11 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.75 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 51, worth -2.69 EP
KICK -1.30 EP
  • 30% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.90 EP
  • 70% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.69 EP
PUNT -0.60 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.60 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model