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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 15 at the 46

Atlanta Falcons 0 – Indianapolis Colts 3

What Actually Happened

(5:51) 4-M.Wile punts 39 yards to IND 7, Center-47-J.Harris, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.23 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.46 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 46, worth -2.89 EP
KICK -1.08 EP
  • 42% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.54 EP
  • 58% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 49, worth -2.98 EP
PUNT -0.68 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 13, worth -0.68 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model