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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 7 at the 31

Indianapolis Colts 0 – Atlanta Falcons 0

What Actually Happened

(9:36) 4-A.Vinatieri 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

The Three Options

GO +1.43 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.71 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 31, worth -0.54 EP
KICK +1.90 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 77% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.84 EP
  • 23% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 41, worth -1.30 EP
PUNT +0.81 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth +0.81 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model