Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 15 at the 80

Indianapolis Colts 20 – Atlanta Falcons 10

What Actually Happened

(9:01) 8-R.Sanchez punts 53 yards to ATL 27, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 38-K.Barner to ATL 40 for 13 yards (38-R.Lewis). PENALTY on ATL-33-B.Wreh-Wilson, Illegal Blindside Block, 15 yards, enforced at ATL 37.

The Three Options

GO -2.56 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.76 EP
68% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 80, worth -4.56 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model