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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 11 at the 16

Atlanta Falcons 0 – Indianapolis Colts 13

What Actually Happened

(2:24) 3-M.Bryant 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-4-M.Wile.

The Three Options

GO +1.02 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.55 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 16, worth -0.67 EP
KICK +1.60 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.78 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 26, worth -1.27 EP
PUNT -0.53 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model