Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 4 at the 66

Cincinnati Bengals 10 – San Francisco 49ers 41

(:56) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass deep middle to 11-J.Ross III for 66 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO -0.86 EP

What Happened

49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +0.82 EP
51% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 66, worth -2.49 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.34 EP