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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 3 at the 67

San Francisco 49ers 41 – Cincinnati Bengals 10

What Actually Happened

(2:00) (Punt formation) 6-M.Wishnowsky punts 39 yards to CIN 28, Center-40-C.Holba, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.59 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.15 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 67, worth -2.60 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.85 EP
What Happened
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 25, worth -0.85 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model