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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 16 at the 21

San Francisco 49ers 41 – Cincinnati Bengals 10

What Actually Happened

(7:08) 9-R.Gould 39 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-40-C.Holba, Holder-6-M.Wishnowsky.

The Three Options

GO +0.51 EP
  • 22% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.71 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 21, worth -0.99 EP
KICK +1.42 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.76 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 31, worth -1.47 EP
PUNT -0.42 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model