4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 3 at the 68

Cincinnati Bengals 10 – San Francisco 49ers 34

What Actually Happened

(3:17) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 50 yards to SF 18, Center-46-C.Harris. 13-R.James Jr. to SF 18 for no gain (40-B.Wilson).

The Three Options

GO -0.79 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.77 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 68, worth -3.83 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -0.87 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 26, worth -0.87 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model