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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 2 at the 20

San Francisco 49ers 31 – Cincinnati Bengals 10

What Actually Happened

(4:39) 9-R.Gould 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-C.Holba, Holder-6-M.Wishnowsky.

The Three Options

GO +2.19 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.79 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 20, worth -0.88 EP
KICK +1.49 EP
What Happened
  • 90% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 30, worth -1.50 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.70 EP