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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 1 at the 33

Seattle Seahawks 28 – Pittsburgh Steelers 26

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 74-G.Fant reported in as eligible. 32-C.Carson up the middle to PIT 31 for 2 yards (97-C.Heyward).

The Three Options

GO +1.39 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +2.48 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 33, worth -1.13 EP
KICK +1.04 EP
  • 72% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.05 EP
  • 28% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 43, worth -1.54 EP
PUNT -0.42 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model