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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 3 at the 73

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Seattle Seahawks 0

What Actually Happened

(10:02) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 52 yards to SEA 21, Center-57-K.Canaday. 16-T.Lockett to SEA 21 for no gain (80-J.Holton).

The Three Options

GO -0.90 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.72 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 73, worth -4.10 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -0.97 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 31, worth -0.97 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model