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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 9 at the 15

Pittsburgh Steelers 10 – Seattle Seahawks 14

What Actually Happened

(6:25) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry.

The Three Options

GO +1.51 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.63 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 15, worth -0.25 EP
KICK +2.06 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.23 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 25, worth -0.77 EP
PUNT +0.15 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth +0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model