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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 16 at the 52

Seattle Seahawks 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0

What Actually Happened

(10:51) (Punt formation) 4-M.Dickson punts 52 yards to end zone, Center-69-T.Ott, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.30 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.45 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 52, worth -3.15 EP
KICK -1.87 EP
  • 26% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
  • 74% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 49, worth -3.09 EP
PUNT -0.77 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 15, worth -0.77 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model