Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 10 at the 91

Atlanta Falcons 3 – Philadelphia Eagles 0

(:40) 5-M.Bosher punts 42 yards to PHI 49, Center-47-J.Harris. 43-D.Sproles to ATL 43 for 8 yards (80-L.Stocker).

The Three Options

GO -3.28 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 81, worth +0.41 EP
63% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 91, worth -5.43 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (108 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model