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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 16 at the 32

Atlanta Falcons 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 0

What Actually Happened

(9:33) 3-M.Bryant 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.

The Three Options

GO +0.43 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +5.12 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 32, worth -1.03 EP
KICK +1.36 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 75% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.41 EP
  • 25% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 42, worth -1.84 EP
PUNT +0.31 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth +0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model