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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 11 at the 58

Philadelphia Eagles 6 – Atlanta Falcons 17

What Actually Happened

(10:04) 1-C.Johnston punts 46 yards to ATL 12, Center-45-R.Lovato. 38-K.Barner to ATL 18 for 6 yards (37-J.Cyprien; 36-R.Ford). PENALTY on ATL-14-J.Hardy, Offensive Holding, 9 yards, enforced at ATL 18.

The Three Options

GO -1.12 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.96 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 58, worth -3.18 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.81 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 18, worth -0.81 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model