Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 10 at the 68

Philadelphia Eagles 3 – Atlanta Falcons 10

What Actually Happened

(1:46) 1-C.Johnston punts 57 yards to ATL 11, Center-45-R.Lovato. 38-K.Barner ran ob at ATL 22 for 11 yards (30-C.Clement). ATL-27-D.Kazee was injured during the play. PENALTY on ATL-33-B.Wreh-Wilson, Offensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at ATL 11.

The Three Options

GO -1.60 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.03 EP
64% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 68, worth -3.67 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model