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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 14 at the 16

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – Atlanta Falcons 3

What Actually Happened

(10:50) 4-J.Elliott 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-1-C.Johnston.

The Three Options

GO +1.42 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.27 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 16, worth -0.24 EP
KICK +1.94 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.12 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 26, worth -0.99 EP
PUNT +0.35 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth +0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model