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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 9 at the 52

Green Bay Packers 21 – Minnesota Vikings 16

What Actually Happened

(:13) 85-R.Tonyan reported in as eligible. 6-J.Scott punts 52 yards to end zone, Center-43-H.Bradley, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.24 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +0.49 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 52, worth -0.61 EP
KICK +0.34 EP
Model's Pick
  • 24% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.95 EP
  • 76% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 49, worth -0.50 EP
PUNT +0.02 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 15, worth +0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.32 EP