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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 7 at the 73

Minnesota Vikings 16 – Green Bay Packers 21

What Actually Happened

(3:24) 2-B.Colquitt punts 52 yards to GB 21, Center-58-A.Cutting. 11-T.Davis to GB 21 for no gain (38-K.Boyd). Penalty on MIN-38-K.Boyd, Unnecessary Roughness, offsetting. Penalty on GB-25-W.Redmond, Offensive Holding, offsetting.

The Three Options

GO -1.75 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.38 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 73, worth -3.83 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.20 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 31, worth -1.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model