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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 10 at the 29

Minnesota Vikings 0 – Green Bay Packers 7

What Actually Happened

(9:21) 5-D.Bailey 47 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-58-A.Cutting, Holder-2-B.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +0.17 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.63 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 29, worth -1.69 EP
KICK +0.76 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 79% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.62 EP
  • 21% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 39, worth -2.41 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model