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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 17 at the 60

Green Bay Packers 21 – Minnesota Vikings 16

What Actually Happened

(5:41) 6-J.Scott punts 48 yards to MIN 12, Center-43-H.Bradley, fair catch by 12-C.Beebe.

The Three Options

GO -1.73 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +2.94 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 60, worth -3.31 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.66 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 19, worth -0.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model