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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 1 at the 25

Green Bay Packers 21 – Minnesota Vikings 7

What Actually Happened

(1:37) 30-J.Williams left tackle to MIN 27 for -2 yards (98-L.Joseph).

The Three Options

GO +2.53 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.35 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 25, worth -1.00 EP
KICK +1.43 EP
  • 85% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.96 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 35, worth -1.56 EP
PUNT -0.29 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model