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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 18 at the 73

Green Bay Packers 21 – Minnesota Vikings 7

What Actually Happened

(5:06) 6-J.Scott punts 43 yards to MIN 30, Center-43-H.Bradley. 12-C.Beebe to MIN 40 for 10 yards (45-D.Vitale).

The Three Options

GO -2.36 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.48 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 73, worth -4.06 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.29 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 31, worth -1.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model