Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 9 at the 74

Los Angeles Chargers 7 – Detroit Lions 6

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 1-T.Long punts 51 yards to DET 23, Center-45-C.Mazza. 39-J.Agnew to DET 33 for 10 yards (34-D.Watt). PENALTY on DET-35-M.Killebrew, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at DET 24.

The Three Options

GO -2.49 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.05 EP
64% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 74, worth -4.51 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model