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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 1 at the 35

Detroit Lions 6 – Los Angeles Chargers 10

What Actually Happened

(8:06) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 11-M.Jones to LAC 31 for 4 yards (23-R.Jenkins).

The Three Options

GO +1.93 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.58 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 35, worth -1.54 EP
KICK +0.63 EP
  • 69% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
  • 31% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 45, worth -2.08 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model