Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Detroit Lions 4th & 7 at the 76

Detroit Lions 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 0

(12:32) 6-S.Martin punts 44 yards to LAC 32, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.71 EP

41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.97 EP
59% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 76, worth -4.26 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model