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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 7 at the 61

Los Angeles Chargers 7 – Detroit Lions 6

What Actually Happened

(3:40) 1-T.Long punts 52 yards to DET 9, Center-45-C.Mazza. 80-D.Amendola to DET 20 for 11 yards (11-G.Davis).

The Three Options

GO -1.32 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.17 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 61, worth -3.52 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -1.00 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 20, worth -1.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model