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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 2 at the 22

Detroit Lions 6 – Los Angeles Chargers 7

What Actually Happened

(6:02) 5-M.Prater 40 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +2.30 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.56 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 22, worth -0.46 EP
KICK +1.90 EP
What Happened
  • 90% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.25 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 32, worth -1.15 EP
PUNT +0.13 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EP