Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 7 at the 71

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – Detroit Lions 0

(14:00) 1-T.Long punts 55 yards to DET 16, Center-45-C.Mazza. 39-J.Agnew to DET 21 for 5 yards (98-I.Rochell; 31-A.Phillips).

The Three Options

GO -1.99 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.63 EP
60% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 71, worth -4.40 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model