Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 6 at the 72

Los Angeles Chargers 7 – Detroit Lions 6

What Actually Happened

(10:50) 1-T.Long punts 44 yards to DET 28, Center-45-C.Mazza. 80-D.Amendola to DET 44 for 16 yards (42-U.Nwosu). PENALTY on DET-46-N.Bawden, Illegal Blindside Block, 14 yards, enforced at DET 28. Penalty on DET-27-J.Coleman, Offensive Holding, declined.

The Three Options

GO -1.96 EP

43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.28 EP
57% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 72, worth -4.38 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model