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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 3 at the 54

Detroit Lions 6 – Los Angeles Chargers 7

What Actually Happened

(12:28) 6-S.Martin punts 42 yards to LAC 12, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, fair catch by 20-D.King.

The Three Options

GO +0.35 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +3.01 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 54, worth -2.57 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.09 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 16, worth -0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.45 EP