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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 10 at the 31

Jacksonville Jaguars 6 – Houston Texans 13

What Actually Happened

(:52) (Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew scrambles right end to HOU 13 for 18 yards (55-B.McKinney; 57-B.Scarlett).

The Three Options

GO +0.40 EP
What Happened
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +2.99 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 31, worth -0.58 EP
KICK +1.79 EP
Model's Pick
  • 77% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.56 EP
  • 23% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 41, worth -0.80 EP
PUNT -0.10 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.40 EP