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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 1 at the 59

Jacksonville Jaguars 6 – Houston Texans 13

What Actually Happened

(2:19) 27-L.Fournette up the middle to JAX 42 for 1 yard (55-B.McKinney, 41-Z.Cunningham). Houston challenged the first down ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1.)

The Three Options

GO +0.49 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +1.67 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 59, worth -1.96 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.50 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 18, worth -0.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model