Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 5 at the 69

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(9:19) 9-L.Cooke punts 54 yards to HOU 15, Center-46-M.Orzech, out of bounds. PENALTY on HOU-35-K.Crossen, Offensive Holding, 7 yards, enforced at HOU 15.

The Three Options

GO -1.74 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.51 EP
58% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 69, worth -4.12 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model