Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 18 at the 73

Houston Texans 13 – Jacksonville Jaguars 6

(3:47) 8-T.Daniel punts 44 yards to JAX 29, Center-46-J.Weeks. 12-D.Westbrook to JAX 32 for 3 yards (35-K.Crossen).

The Three Options

GO -2.25 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +1.52 EP
72% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 73, worth -3.69 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model