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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q4
Houston Texans
4th & 1 at the 2
Houston Texans 6 – Jacksonville Jaguars 3
What Actually Happened
(11:41) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The Three Options
GO
+4.44 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.36 EP
- 35% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 2, worth +0.83 EP
KICK
+1.88 EP
- 98% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.92 EP
- 2% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 21, worth -0.83 EP
PUNT
-0.20 EP
- Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.20 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
