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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 1 at the 74

Houston Texans 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

What Actually Happened

(10:38) 8-T.Daniel punts 48 yards to JAX 26, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 12-D.Westbrook.

The Three Options

GO -0.05 EP
Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +1.45 EP
  • 27% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 74, worth -4.17 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -1.03 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 32, worth -1.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.98 EP