Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 7 at the 60

Houston Texans 6 – Jacksonville Jaguars 3

(11:58) 8-T.Daniel punts 35 yards to JAX 25, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 12-D.Westbrook.

The Three Options

GO -0.88 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.76 EP
60% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 60, worth -3.36 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model