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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 13 at the 66

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(12:05) 9-L.Cooke punts 44 yards to HOU 22, Center-46-M.Orzech. 14-D.Carter to HOU 35 for 13 yards (42-A.Wingard). PENALTY on HOU-29-P.Gaines, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at HOU 27.

The Three Options

GO -2.25 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.38 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 66, worth -4.00 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -1.39 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 24, worth -1.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model