Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 18 at the 75

Houston Texans 3 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

(8:44) 8-T.Daniel punts 44 yards to JAX 31, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 12-D.Westbrook.

The Three Options

GO -2.37 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +2.34 EP
72% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 75, worth -4.19 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model