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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 6 at the 81

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Houston Texans 3

What Actually Happened

(10:04) 9-L.Cooke punts 48 yards to HOU 33, Center-46-M.Orzech, fair catch by 14-D.Carter. Penalty on HOU-52-B.Mingo, Running Into the Kicker, declined.

The Three Options

GO -2.43 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +1.08 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 81, worth -4.86 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

PUNT -2.29 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 38, worth -2.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model