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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 15 at the 69

Houston Texans 3 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

What Actually Happened

(11:42) 8-T.Daniel punts 54 yards to JAX 15, Center-46-J.Weeks. 12-D.Westbrook pushed ob at JAX 15 for no gain (33-A.Moore).

The Three Options

GO -1.77 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.80 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 69, worth -3.71 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -1.00 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 27, worth -1.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model