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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 4 at the 58

Washington Commanders 0 – Dallas Cowboys 0

What Actually Happened

(12:47) 5-T.Way punts 52 yards to DAL 6, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 18-R.Cobb to DAL 10 for 4 yards (22-D.Everett).

The Three Options

GO -0.14 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +3.14 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 58, worth -2.90 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.36 EP
What Happened
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 18, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model