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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 3 at the 68

Washington Commanders 7 – Dallas Cowboys 7

What Actually Happened

(4:41) 5-T.Way punts 51 yards to DAL 17, Center-57-N.Sundberg, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.94 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.68 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 68, worth -3.76 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.09 EP
What Happened
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 26, worth -1.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model