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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 16 at the 41

Cleveland Browns 23 – New York Jets 3

What Actually Happened

(1:13) 7-J.Gillan punts 30 yards to NYJ 11, Center-47-C.Hughlett, downed by CLE-20-T.Thomas.

The Three Options

GO +0.07 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +2.94 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 41, worth -0.98 EP
KICK +0.65 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.41 EP
  • 48% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 49, worth -1.28 EP
PUNT -0.19 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 12, worth -0.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.84 EP