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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 2 at the 59

Cleveland Browns 23 – New York Jets 3

What Actually Happened

(:43) 7-J.Gillan punts 47 yards to NYJ 12, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 10-B.Berrios.

The Three Options

GO +0.10 EP
Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +2.04 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 59, worth -3.10 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.83 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 18, worth -0.83 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.93 EP