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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 2 at the 12

New York Jets 3 – Cleveland Browns 16

What Actually Happened

(3:49) (Shotgun) 8-L.Falk pass short left to 26-L.Bell to CLE 11 for 1 yard (26-G.Williams; 53-J.Schobert).

The Three Options

GO +2.77 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.41 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 12, worth -0.07 EP
KICK +2.01 EP
  • 96% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 22, worth -0.73 EP
PUNT +0.06 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth +0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model