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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 9 at the 65

Cleveland Browns 16 – New York Jets 3

What Actually Happened

(7:18) 7-J.Gillan punts 41 yards to NYJ 24, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 10-B.Berrios to NYJ 29 for 5 yards (12-K.Hodge).

The Three Options

GO -1.50 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.17 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 65, worth -3.76 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.98 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 23, worth -0.98 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model